India’s 2026 southwest monsoon began on a weak note, raising concerns for the kharif cropping season as El Niño conditions strengthen in the Pacific.

Early-season rainfall remained below normal across several key agricultural regions, delaying sowing of rice, cotton and oilseeds.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast seasonal rainfall at about 90% of the long-period average, with a high probability of below-normal precipitation.

However, weather conditions have improved in early July, with fresh low-pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal reviving monsoon activity across central, western and northern India.

The enhanced rainfall is expected to reduce rainfall deficits, improve soil moisture and support delayed sowing, although localized flooding and crop damage remain possible in areas receiving very heavy rain.